A draw was the result of the Hamas-Israeli first round of mini-wars that lasted for 28 days. Hamas failed to force Israel to end the blockade imposed on Gaza. Israel also failed to bomb Hamas into total surrender and demilitarization. The Cairo talks are following the same paradigm of the Paris talks, leading to nowhere, and its decisions are abiding to nobody, forcing both sides to a regressive position of a status quo ante.
Amman witnessed a rally days ago of nearly 50,000 supporters of the Jordanian Islamic Movement, which raised the Jordanian flags and applauded what they called "the great victory of Hamas against the enemy”.
The Arab media was unanimous in expressing support for Gazans, even among Shiite print media, supposed to be anti- Hamas. Many analysts considered as a victory the mere survival of Qassam fighters, following such a long time of beating and bombardment by the fourth strongest army in the world. It might be misleading to assume that the resumed war will end just like the ones in 2009 or in 2012. The geopolitical changes in the region will have its ramifications on the outcome of the renewed rounds as the Qatari Turkish axis will have its toll in Gaza as it is still operating in Libya and Syria.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has realized by now the futility of counting on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas or his Fateh supporters to be able to replace Hamas in Gaza. The other options of replacing Hamas by any Palestinian group, including the Iranian-linked Islamic Jihad, are too distasteful to his orthodox political ideology, as well as being too pernicious to the future security of Israel. The imperatives of pragmatic politics requires a Hamas neighbor rather than an Iranian extension of Hizbollah, or a new foothold for the Iraqi Islamic State which has its camps bombed regularly in Syrian Deraa, only ten kilometers from the Jordanian border. Both combatants adhered to an unannounced stratagem: not to deal each other the fatal blow, which explains why the subterranean infra structure of Hamas command and control centre was saved the bombardment, while Al Fajr Iranian missiles with its range of 175 kilometers did not hit airports or population centers. That tacit undeclared understanding between the two main protagonists might be the solid base for any future accommodation or interaction since both have the self-deluding image of being a winner in front of his own constituents.
The material damage, in its economic form or financial, does not constitute an impediment to any future understanding between Hamas and Israel. Both sides know that either Washington, or some Arab capitals will compensate for the damage. But the death toll with its deep scars among both sides will never be overlooked. June Kunugi, representative of United Nations Children Fund (UNICEF) in Palestine submitted her report on 8/8/2014 in which she says that 427 Gazan children were killed during the 28 day war while 2744 children were injured. It is the loss of human life which should count most.
